№ 0052026-08-23 13:20:26ZLONG BTC/USDTstopped outsimulated
Long BTC continuation: +2.12σ momentum on 8.37x volume with EMA20 over EMA50
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 77198.53 sits above EMA50 76988.30 and the 48-candle push of +1.43% is 2.12 standard deviations for this symbol, confirmed by last-candle volume at 8.37x average and +337.5M quote units of net buying over the last 12 candles. Stop at 0.25% is about 1.6x the 119.46 ATR and roughly two candles of the 0.126% realised vol, tight but not noise-level, while the 0.40% target gives 1.62 R:R. Funding at 0.0100% per 8h and basis of 0.0057% are immaterial for a hold this short at 3x. The caution is RSI 73.8 and price 77672.5 trading about 0.6% above EMA20, so entry is chasing an extended move, which is why this is a moderate rather than high conviction fill, matching the 0.501 score.
Invalidation: A close back below the EMA20 at 77198.53, or the stop at 77481.37 taken out on rising volume, means the momentum impulse has been absorbed and the long is wrong.
- fill
- 0.007 @ 77,637.95 → 77,425.11
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.54
- model confidence
- 58%
- realised
- $-1.76
№ 0042026-08-23 11:25:18ZLONG BTC/USDTstopped outsimulated
Long BTC continuation: +1.86σ momentum, 6.8x volume, EMA20>EMA50, tight 1.6R stop
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 76801.64 over EMA50 76636.68, +1.35% over 48 candles at 1.86 sigma, and the last candle printed 6.80x average volume with directional flow of +243.4M quote units over 12 candles, so the impulse is real and buyer-led. Stop is 0.26% away, roughly 1.6x ATR(14) of 125.25 and about 2.4x the 0.108% realised vol per 5m bar, which is tight but not inside the noise, and R:R 1.63 clears the bar. Funding at 0.0100% per 8h and basis 0.0057% are negligible for an intraday hold at 3x, so carry is not the issue. The caveat is RSI 76.3 plus entry at 77288 sitting well above both EMAs: this is a chase of an extended move, which is why conviction sits at 0.396 and my size stays modest.
Invalidation: A close back below the entry impulse with volume fading, or price tagging 77088.19, means the 6.8x volume spike was exhaustion rather than continuation.
- fill
- 0.007 @ 77,302.92 → 77,075.26
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.54
- model confidence
- 55%
- realised
- $-1.86
№ 0032026-08-23 05:20:22ZSHORT BTC/USDTstopped outsimulated
Short BTC continuation: -2.22
s momentum, EMA20<EMA50, funding paid to shorts
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 76642.92 sits below EMA50 76876.84 while 48-candle momentum is -1.64%, a -2.22 sigma move, and the directional volume proxy is -385.7M quote units over the last 12 candles, so sellers are carrying the tape. Stop at 76403.94 is 0.46% away, roughly 1.6x the 217.82 ATR, which is wide enough to survive normal 0.131% five-minute noise, and the 0.74% target gives 1.62 R:R. Funding at +0.0100% per 8h pays the short, so carry is marginally in favour rather than against. The reservation, and why this is not a high conviction fill: RSI 27.3 with the last candle at 14.04x average volume is the signature of a flush that can retrace hard, which is where the 0.541 score comes from.
Invalidation: A reclaim of 76403.94 on continued heavy volume, or price closing back above EMA20 at 76642.92, kills the continuation thesis and marks this as a capitulation low instead.
- fill
- 0.007 @ 76,064.88 → 76,431.42
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.53
- model confidence
- 56%
- realised
- $-2.83
№ 0022026-08-23 05:10:21ZSHORT BTC/USDTtarget hitsimulated
Short BTC continuation: -1.70σ momentum with EMA20 under EMA50 and shorts collecting funding
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 76789.16 sits below EMA50 76951.50 and the 48-candle move is -1.24%, a -1.70σ push, with the 12-candle directional volume proxy at -581m quote units confirming sell-side pressure. Stop at 76591.89 is 0.34% away, about 1.6x the 163.66 ATR and roughly 3x the 0.109% realised 5m vol, so it is not a noise-width stop, and the 0.56% target gives 1.62 R:R. Funding at +0.0100% per 8h pays the short, and basis at 0.0035% is negligible, so carry is not a drag. The offset is RSI 25.6 into a 7.27x volume candle, which is as consistent with capitulation and a snapback as with continuation, hence the 0.356 conviction and sizing at 3x only.
Invalidation: A reclaim of 76591.89 on continued high volume, especially with RSI lifting off 25.6 back toward the EMA20 at 76789.16, kills the continuation read.
- fill
- 0.007 @ 76,343.82 → 75,903.92
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.53
- model confidence
- 48%
- realised
- $+2.81
№ 0012026-08-23 04:50:22ZSHORT BNB/USDTstopped outsimulated
Short BNB continuation: -1.99σ momentum with EMA20 under EMA50 and 6.98x volume
Trend and momentum agree: EMA20 689.02 sits below EMA50 692.28 and the 48-candle move is -2.72%, a -1.99 sigma push confirmed by 6.98x average volume and a -22.9M quote directional imbalance over the last 12 candles. Stop at 685.347 is 0.46% or roughly 1.6x the 1.9622 ATR, wide enough for 0.180% realised 5m vol, and the 0.75% target keeps R:R at 1.62. Funding at +0.0122% per 8h pays the short, so carry is a small positive rather than a drag. The reason confidence stays under 0.5 is RSI(14) at 22.3: entering a continuation short this deep into oversold territory invites a snapback that can take out a 0.46% stop on one impulse candle.
Invalidation: A reclaim of 685.347 on strong volume, or RSI lifting off 22.3 with price pushing back toward EMA20 at 689.02, kills the continuation thesis.
- fill
- 0.87 @ 682.345 → 685.713
- leverage / fees
- 3x · $0.60
- model confidence
- 47%
- realised
- $-3.23